Hs. Horst et al., RISKS AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF INTRODUCING CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER INTO THE NETHERLANDS BY FEEDING SWILL TO SWINE, Revue scientifique et technique - Office international des epizooties, 16(1), 1997, pp. 207-214
An effective animal disease prevention and eradication programme is of
great importance for meat-exporting countries such as the Netherlands
. If a serious outbreak of disease were to occur, the eradication meas
ures required by the European Union and a possible ban on meat exports
would have severe economic consequences. However, historical and expe
rimental information on which these programmes can he based is scarce.
Furthermore, until recently, an integrated approach which combined th
e various aspects of outbreaks and risks with economic consequences wa
s lacking. This paper describes a project based on such an integrated
approach. The project covered the elicitation of expert knowledge and
the development of the virus introduction risk simulation model (VIRiS
), VIRiS integrates objective and subjective information concerning ri
sks and consequences of virus introduction, and thus presents policy-m
akers with a useful tool for the evaluation of existing prevention pro
grammes and possible alternatives. VIRiS is illustrated for classical
swine fever. A comparison is made between the current situation and a
hypothetical situation where the risk factor 'swill feeding' is comple
tely eliminated.