ETHNOPOLITICAL REBELLION - A CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE 1980S WITH RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR THE 1990S

Theory: A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and re source mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1980s and to provide risk assessments for the early 1990s. Hypotheses: We hypothesize that ethnopolitical groups which pr oduce residuals well below the regression line will likely exhibit reb ellious behavior in the early 1990s. Methods: We use a three stage lea st squares estimator, analyze the coefficients and their standard erro rs, and also examine the residuals. Results: We find broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focus attention on the risk assessment s. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1990s, the theoretical model helps us e xplain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1990s have not in fact done so.