A MODEL-BASED APPROACH TO VALIDATING EDUCATION INDICATORS USING MULTILEVEL STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING

This article considers an approach to validating the selection of educ ation indicators by incorporating them into a multilevel structural mo del and using the estimates from that model to engage in policy-releva nt simulations. Multilevel structural equation modeling was applied to a subsample of the first follow-up of the National Education Longitud inal Study of 1988 (National Center for Education Statistics, 1988) to demonstrate the potential of this approach. Focus of attention was on science education indicators. A within-school model of science achiev ement was linked to a between-school model of the academic press of th e school. Separate estimation of these models revealed adequate fit to the data after minor modifications. The multilevel model also showed adequate fit to the data. Utilizing the reduced form of the full multi level model, predictive validity of the model was studied by gauging m ovements in various outcome indicators as a function of changes in pol icy-relevant input indicators. The article closes with a discussion of the limitations of the proposed modeling approach, the potential for future model development, and the implications of this approach for qu antitative modeling within the domain of education policy.