STRUCTURAL-CHANGE AND FERTILITY CHANGE IN THE SOUTH, 1910 TO 1940

Objective. This paper provides new information about the decline in so uthern fertility that occurred between 1910 and 1940. Two objectives g uide the investigation. The first is to determine the contribution of shifting marriage patterns and altered marital childbearing to the ove rall change in fertility that occurred between 1910 and 1940. The seco nd is to estimate the influence of a variety of structural changes on shifts in marriage patterns and marital fertility. Methods. Unlike mos t previous studies this analysis focuses specifically on fertility cha nge, rather than static cross-sectional differences across geographic areas. Fertility change and structural change are measured for state e conomic areas (SEAs) within the South. Results. The findings show that southern fertility fell mainly because of a reduced pace of childbear ing by married couples, rather than less exposure to marital fertility . Further, marital fertility decline was sharper in areas that experie nced larger reductions in the number of farms per capita, and greater increases in education and manufacturing activity. Marriage became les s common in SEAs that saw growth in manufacturing opportunities. Concl usions. Support for demand theories of fertility decline is inferred f rom the findings. However, the possible contribution of nonstructural forces to southern fertility decline is also acknowledged.