The Dutch depenalization and subsequent de facto legalization of canna
bis since 1976 is used here to highlight the strengths and limitations
of reasoning by analogy as a guide for projecting the effects of rela
xing drug prohibitions. While the Dutch case and other analogies have
flaws, they appear to converge in suggesting that reductions in crimin
al penalties have limited effects on drug use-at least for marijuana-b
ut that commercial access is associated with growth in the drug-using
population.