WATERSHED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE-CHANGE AT GLACIER NATIONAL-PARK

We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and th e potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activitie s: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic or ganism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mount ain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Sim ulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which coll ectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs o f ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, an d snowpack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stre am discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be signi ficantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scen arios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scien tific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park manag ement.