THE PRESS AND THE POLLS IN GERMANY, 1980-1994 - POLL COVERAGE AS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN REPORTING

Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attack from politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamental criticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome of elections. This artic le investigates news media reporting of poll results and comments on p ublic opinion research before Federal elections in Germany. It present s empirical findings for the quantity as well as the formal and substa ntial quality of this press coverage. The database is a content analys is of 443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leading da ilies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau, (FR ), Suddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between 1980 and 1994 . The quantity of news media reporting of public opinion polls has imp roved otter the years. Now, poll stories are a standard feature of Ger man newspapers. The frequency of reports depends on the conditions of each election-e.g. on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formal quality could be better-that is the conformity to AAPOR sta ndards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as in the USA. Jour nalists often use poll results ro predict an election outcome. Moreove r, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationship between liberal jo urnalists and polls, while the reporting of conservative journalists i s more in favor of opinion research.