STAFF DO KNOW BEST - PEER AND THERAPIST PREDICTION OF OUTCOME FOLLOWING TREATMENT FOR PROBLEM DRINKING

The relative ability of staff and patients' peers to predict outcome a t one year post-treatment for 54 problem drinkers was examined. In con trast to peers, staff were able accurately to predict drinking status and were more accurate predictors of psychological distress. Both grou ps were accurate predictors of future family and social support. Predi ctors of drinking status included the perception that the patient had significant ongoing problems and the estimated likelihood that the pat ient would carry out their discharge plans. Accurate predictors of dri nking status tended to be more senior and experienced staff. No indivi dual problem drinker was an accurate predictor of his or her peers' fu ture drinking status. Ways of improving the accuracy of clinical judge ments and the possibility of both positive and negative consequences o f accurate prediction are discussed.