TEACHERS AND THE BIRTH-RATE - THE DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS OF A SERVICE POPULATION

A theoretical model is developed in which the market for teachers is l inked to the time path of fertility in the general population. The mod el is simple in its components but when the components are combined th ey form a complex long-memory dynamic system. Simulation experiments a re carried out to investigate the effects of changes in fertility rate s on supply/requirements imbalances in the teachers' market, the media n age of teachers, and other variables. The model (and by implication, the real-world system) is found to be highly volatile in response to fertility variations.