R. Aspinall et K. Matthews, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE SPECIES - AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH USING GIS, Environmental pollution, 86(2), 1994, pp. 217-223
An analytical approach to modelling the likely impact of climate chang
e on the distribution and abundance of wildlife species is described u
sing examples from Scotland Data for present day distribution of wildl
ife and habitat are analysed using map data describing geographic vari
ation in climatic factors. Climate data for the present day and under
specified scenarios of change are themselves modelled within a GIS; cl
imate modelling uses meteorological station data, climate change scena
rios developed from GCMs and a variety of spatial interpolation techni
ques. The analytical procedure generates hypotheses defining ecologica
l relationships between species distribution and climatic factors (mon
thly, seasonal and annual data). These relationships are then used to
model the distribution of the species directly from climate and predic
t impacts of climate change. The analysis takes account of both direct
impacts of climate on wildlife and indirect effects manifested throug
h habitat response to climate change. The analytical procedure is impl
emented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.