CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE SPECIES - AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH USING GIS

An analytical approach to modelling the likely impact of climate chang e on the distribution and abundance of wildlife species is described u sing examples from Scotland Data for present day distribution of wildl ife and habitat are analysed using map data describing geographic vari ation in climatic factors. Climate data for the present day and under specified scenarios of change are themselves modelled within a GIS; cl imate modelling uses meteorological station data, climate change scena rios developed from GCMs and a variety of spatial interpolation techni ques. The analytical procedure generates hypotheses defining ecologica l relationships between species distribution and climatic factors (mon thly, seasonal and annual data). These relationships are then used to model the distribution of the species directly from climate and predic t impacts of climate change. The analysis takes account of both direct impacts of climate on wildlife and indirect effects manifested throug h habitat response to climate change. The analytical procedure is impl emented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.