Smn. Amin et Rgd. Davidsonarnott, A STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE CONTROLS ON SHORELINE EROSION RATES, LAKE ONTARIO, Journal of coastal research, 13(4), 1997, pp. 1093-1101
Recession of the cohesive shorelines of the Great Lakes is controlled
by the complex interaction of a number of processes and factors, inclu
ding the magnitude of wave energy reaching the shoreline, sediment sup
ply and beach sediment budget, and several morphological and geotechni
cal properties of the bluff and bluff sediments. The difficulties of m
aking measurements of processes in this environment have meant that pr
ogress in determining the role and relative significance of the contro
lling variables has been slow. In this study linear multiple regressio
n is used to determine the degree and nature of the relationship betwe
en shoreline recession rates and four predictor variables for a sectio
n of shoreline at the south-west end of Lake Ontario. The variables us
ed are wave energy, sediment availability, potential longshore sedimen
t transport rate and bluff height. The data are derived from a previou
s study of littoral drift and sediment budget modelling within the stu
dy area and consist of values for each variable for points spaced at 2
00 m intervals along a 14 km shoreline length. The four variables, acc
ount for 72% of the variability in shoreline recession rates. The succ
ess of the model in this application is attributable in part to the un
iformity of the geotechnical properties of the cohesive sediments with
in the study area and to the level of detail provided by modelling of
wave refraction and littoral drift.