AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL OF THE REPRODUCTIVE RATE OF HIV-INFECTION - FORMULATION, EVALUATION, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK REDUCTION INTERVENTIONS

The future course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic depends on the ratio of sec ondary to primary infections early in the epedemic. If this ratio, her e called the reproductive rate of infection, exceeds unity then the ep idemic can be expected to flourish, otherwise it will eventually abate . Estimates of the reproductive rate of HIV infection, obtained via a Bernoulli process model of the sexual transmission of HIV, indicate th at decreasing the infectivity of the virus, through the consistent use of condoms, for example, is more effective at reducing the reproducti ve rate of infection than is limiting the number of sexual partners, r egardless of the initial prevalence of HIV infection in the population under consideration.