MODELING AND MONITORING LAND-COVER CHANGE PROCESSES IN TROPICAL REGIONS

Transformations in terrestrial ecosystems are increasingly regarded as an important element of global change. Quantitative data on where, wh en and why land-cover changes take place globally are still incomplete . This article reviews recent approaches to the monitoring and modelli ng of deforestation and dryland degradation in tropical regions. The r eview highlights the requirement to tailor the investigation method to the specific research question of interest. Different techniques to m onitor land-cover changes at regional scales are analysed. The followi ng modelling scenarios are discussed and illustrated by specific studi es: projection of future land-cover changes with descriptive models, e xplanation of land-cover changes with empirical models, projection of future spatial patterns of changes with spatial statistical models, te st of scenarios on future changes in land-cover with dynamic ecosystem models, and design of policy interventions with economic models. The article stresses the needs for a better integration of social science knowledge in land-cover change models and for a comprehensive theory o f land-use changes.