Among school leavers applying to study medicine in the United Kingdom
a majority offer General Certificate of Education, Advanced Level (A-l
evel) examinations as part of the assessment of academic ability. At t
he time of application, up to 9 months before completing A-level studi
es, schools are requested to predict the final grades likely to be ach
ieved by the applicant. A total of 5054 A-level predictions from 1661
applicants to a single medical school were compared with the results a
chieved. Predicted and achieved grades were both high with 93% of pred
icted grades being A or B. Over half the predictions were correct, wit
h 41% of predictions above achieved grades and only 7% below achieved
grade. Independent and selective schools predicted higher grades than
comprehensive schools and sixth form colleges, and their pupils were m
ore likely to achieve the entrance requirements. A-level predictions f
or medical school applicants are a strong predictor of achievement and
should continue to be regarded as a useful part of the selection proc
ess.