A NUMERICAL TRANSPORT MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF CD, CU, NI, PB AND ZN IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA - THE SENSITIVITY OF MODEL RESULTS TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MAGNITUDES OF METAL INPUTS

A new transport model for metals (named NOSTRADAMUS) has been develope d to predict concentrations and distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea. NOSTRADAMUS is comprised of components for water, inorganic and organic suspended particulate matter transport; a primary production module contributes to the latter component. Metal exchange between dissolved (water) and total suspended particulate ma tter (inorganic + organic) phases is driven by distribution coefficien ts. Transport is based on an existent 2-D vertically integrated model, incorporating a 35 X 35 km grid. NOSTRADAMUS is largely driven by dat a obtained during the Natural Environment Research Council North Sea P roject (NERC NSP). The sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainti es in the magnitudes of metal inputs has been tested. Results are repo rted far a winter period (January 1989) when plankton production was l ow. Simulated ranges in concentrations in regions influenced by the la rgest inflows, i.e. the NE English coast and the Southern Eight, are s imilar to the ranges in the errors of the concentrations estimated at the northern and southern open sea boundaries of the model. Inclusion of uncertainties with respect to atmospheric (up to +/- 54%) and river ine (+/- 30%) inputs makes little difference to the calculated concent rations of both dissolved and particulate fractions within the souther n North Sea. When all the errors associated with the inputs are includ ed there is good agreement between computed and observed concentration s, and that for dissolved and particulate Cd, Cu and Zn, and dissolved Ni and Pb, many of the observations fall within, or are close to, the range of values generated by the model. For particulate Pb, model sim ulations predict concentrations of the right order, but do not reprodu ce the large scatter in actual concentrations, with simulated concentr ations showing a bias towards lower values compared to those observed. A factor which could have contributed to observed concentrations, and which is not included in the model, is considered to be a substantial benthic input of dissolved lead during this winter period, coupled to a rapid and extensive scavenging of the dissolved lead to particles. Significant reductions in riverine and aeolian inputs of total Cd and Cu of 70% and 50%, respectively, consistent with aims of North Sea Con ferences, are predicted to lead to minor decreases (similar to 10%) in water column concentrations of dissolved and particulate Cd and Cu, e xcept near river sources, where maximum reductions of similar to 30-40 % may occur. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.