Td. Mastro et al., ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF HIV-INFECTED INJECTION-DRUG USERS IN BANGKOK- A CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD, American journal of public health, 84(7), 1994, pp. 1094-1099
Objectives. The purpose of the study was to estimate the number of inj
ection drug users infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
in Bangkok to allow planning for health services for this population.
Methods. A two-sample capture-recapture method was used. The first ca
pture listed all persons on methadone treatment for opiate addiction f
rom April 17 through May 17, 1991, at 18 facilities in Bangkok. The se
cond capture involved urine testing of persons held at 72 Bangkok poli
ce stations from June 3 through September 30, 1991. Persons whose urin
e tests were positive for opiate metabolites or methadone were include
d on the second list. Results. The first capture comprised 4064 person
s and the recapture 1540 persons. There were 171 persons included on b
oth lists, yielding an estimate of 36600 opiate users in Bangkok. Exis
ting data indicate that 89% of opiate users in Bangkok inject drugs an
d that about one third are infected with HIV, yielding an estimate of
approximately 12000 HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok in 19
91. Conclusions: During the 1990s the number of cases of acquired immu
nodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other HIV-related diseases, including
tuberculosis. in the population: of HIV-infected injection drug users
in Bangkok will increase dramatically, placing new demands on existin
g health care facilities. The capture-recapture method mag; be useful
in estimating difficult-to-count populations, including injection drug
users.