APPLICATION OF A WATERSHED RUNOFF MODEL TO NORTHEAST POND RIVER, NEWFOUNDLAND - TO STUDY WATER-BALANCE AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE

The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a waters hed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed ru noff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model w as modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Wate r balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects , were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change s cenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a s eries of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, int er- and groundwater hows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltratio n and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thir ty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of clim atic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results r aise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficul ties and have significant implications for future water resource plann ing and management. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.