WORLD-WIDE PROJECTIONS FOR HIP FRACTURE

The aims of this study were to estimate the present and future inciden ce of hip fracture world-wide. From a survey of available data on curr ent incidence, population trends and the secular changes in hip fractu re risk, the numbers of hip fractures expected in 2025 and 2050 were c omputed. The total number of hip fractures in men and women in 1990 wa s estimated to be 338 000 and 917 000 respectively, a total of 1.26 mi llion. Assuming no change in the age-and sex-specific incidence, the n umber of hip fractures is estimated to approximately double to 2.6 mil lion by the year 2025, and 4.5 million by the year 2050. The percentag e increase will be greater in men (310%) than in women (240%). With mo dest assumptions concerning secular trends, the number of hip fracture s could range between 7.3 and 21.3 million by 2050. The major demograp hic changes will occur in Asia. In 1990, 26% of all hip fractures occu rred in Asia, whereas this figure could rise to 37% in 2025 and to 45% in 2050. We conclude that the socioeconomic impact of hip fractures w ill increase markedly throughout the world, particularly in Asia, and that there is an urgent need to develop preventive strategies, particu larly in the developing countries.