Gd. Tasker et P. Dunne, BOOTSTRAP POSITION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY, Journal of water resources planning and management, 123(6), 1997, pp. 359-367
A method of random resampling of residuals from stochastic models is u
sed to generate a large number of 12-month-long traces of natural mont
hly runoff to be used in a position analysis model for a water-supply
storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses the traces to fore
cast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels fal
ling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory pa
ssing flows conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflow
s. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position
analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of
normality, fewer parameters need to be estimated directly from the da
ta, and accounting for parameter uncertainty is easily done. For a giv
en set of operating rules and water-use requirements for a system, wat
er managers can use such a model as a decision-making tool to evaluate
different operating rules.