J. Wang et al., POVERTY AND MORTALITY AMONG THE ELDERLY - MEASUREMENT OF PERFORMANCE IN 33 COUNTRIES 1960-92, TM & IH. Tropical medicine & international health, 2(10), 1997, pp. 1001-1010
This paper analyses the effect of income and education on life expecta
ncy and mortality rates among the elderly in 33 countries for the peri
od 1960-92 and assesses how that relationship has changed over time as
a result of technical progress. Our outcome variables are life expect
ancy at age 60 and the probability of dying between age 60 and age so
for both males and females. The data are from vital-registration based
life tables published by national statistical offices for several yea
rs during this period. We estimate regressions with determinants that
include GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power), education and
time (as a proxy for technical progress). As the available measure of
education failed to account for variation in life expectancy or mortal
ity at age 60, our reported analyses focus on a simplified model with
only income and time as predictors. The results indicate that, control
ling for income, mortality rates among the elderly have declined consi
derably over the past three decades. We also find that poverty (as mea
sured by low average income levels) explains some of the Variation in
both life expectancy at age 60 and mortality rates among the elderly a
cross the countries in the sample. The explained amount of variation i
s more substantial for females than for males. While poverty does adve
rsely affect mortality rates among the elderly (and the strength of th
is effect is estimated to be increasing over lime), technical progress
appears far more important in the period following Igbo. Predicted fe
male life expectancy (at age 60) in 1960 at the mean income level in 1
960 was, for example 18.8 years; income growth to 1992 increased this
by an estimated 0.7 years, whereas technical progress increased it by
2.0 years. We then use the estimated regression results to compare cou
ntry performance on life expectancy of the elderly, controlling for le
vels of poverty (or income), and to assess how performance has varied
over time. High performing countries, on female life expectancy at age
bo, for the period around 1990, included Chile (1.0 years longer life
expectancy), China (1.7 years longer), France (2.0 years longer), Jap
an (1.9 years longer), and Switzerland (1.3 years longer). Poorly perf
orming countries included Denmark (1.1 years shorter life expectancy t
han predicted from income), Hungary (1.4 years shorter), Iceland (1.2
years shorter), Malaysia (1.6 years shorter), and Trinidad and Tobago
(3.9 years shorter). Chile and Switzerland registered major improvemen
ts in relative performance over this period; Norway, Taiwan and the US
A, in contrast showed major declines in performance between 1980 and t
he early 1990s.