To evaluate the benefits of liming acid soils, a method is needed to p
redict the longevity of its effect on soil pH. We coupled a simple ind
ex of soil buffering with estimates of the proton budget to predict lo
ng-term pH changes in a limed soil (Dark Brown Chemozem) in Saskatchew
an. Analysis of published data for Saskatchewan soils showed that acce
ptable estimates of soil buffering can be obtained from organic matter
and clay content. Buffer capacities of organic matter and clay were e
stimated at 487 and 26 mmol(+/-) kg(-1) (pH unit)(-1), respectively. S
oil pH, titratable acidity, and effective cation exchange capacity (CE
C) were monitored for 18 yr after lime application [Ca(OH)(2) at rates
of 0, 4.5 and 6.7 t ha(-1)] to field plots in a wheat (Triticum aesti
vum L.)-fallow rotation. In limed plots, there was a tendency for pH,
exchangeable Ca and effective CEC to decrease with time in the 0-7.5 c
m layer and to increase in the 7.5-15 cm layer. This was attributed to
mixing of the two layers during cultivation. In the 0-15 cm layer as
a whole, there was no discernible change in acidity, Ca, or CEC during
the monitoring period. Negligible re-acidification in limed soil was
consistent with the estimated H+ budget. External acidification source
s were negligible (no N fertilizer was applied). Acidification due to
leaching of nitrate and export of cations in grain over 18 yr was esti
mated at 6-7 kmol(HC) ha(-1) This amount of acidity would lower soil p
H by less than 0.1 units [buffer capacity of the top 15 cm of soil was
approximate to 70 kmol(+/-) hai (pH unit)(-1)], an amount too small t
o be detectable against background variability.