NUDGING ASIDE MEEHLS PARADOX

Meehl (1967) attacked significance tests used to appraise directional theoretical predictions. With perfect statistical power, the probabili ty approaches .5 of significance in the predicted direction - even for meritless theories. Feeble theory corroboration results. I argue that directional predictions, not significance tests, produce the feeble c orroboration. I review previous solutions to Meehl, rejecting all exce pt the multiple corroboration solution by Lykken (1968) and Kukla (199 0). 1 defend this solution against Meehl's criticisms (Meehl, 1990b) a nd extend it: The complexity of a typical research design enables a th eory to make multiple directional predictions, each of which can be ad equately tested with a significance test. Reasonable theory corroborat ion results when all or most predictions succeed and I discuss techniq ues to assess this.