THE MARKET FOR MOTION-PICTURES - RANK, REVENUE, AND SURVIVAL

Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screen s and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of impe rfect substitutes. We analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results indicate t hat the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent and survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly bo x office revenue is highly convex in rank, which is consistent with Ro sen's superstar phenomenon. Our results have implications for motion p icture licensing arrangements, which have been severely restricted by U.S. court decisions.