A NOVEL PROGNOSTIC SCORING SYSTEM TO PREDICT LATE OUTCOME AFTER PERCUTANEOUS BALLOON VALVOTOMY IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE MITRAL-STENOSIS

We developed a prognostic scoring system to predict the outcome of fol low-vp after balloon mitral valvotomy. The system incorporates seven v ariables before valvotomy: age, New York Heart Association doss, fluor oscopic calcification, echocardiographic score, cardiac rhythm, mitral regurgitation, and mitral valve area. Each variable was coded with ei ther 0 or 1 and a total score was between 0 and 7. The study included 150 patients with a mean follow-up of 33 +/- 24 months. In patients wi th scores of 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, and 6-7, the estimated cardiac event-free survival rate was 97%, 94%, 86%, and 68%, respectively, at 1 year; 95% , 88%, 74%, and 47%, respectively, at 3 years; and 92%, 82%, 61%, and 30%, respectively, 5 years after valvotomy (p = 0.0001). The hazard ri sk ratio for cardiac events was 1.7 times greater For every step up of the score (p = 0.0001). Our scoring system provides a simple but effe ctive method to predict late outcome of balloon mitral valvotomy.