GREAT-POWERS, CYCLES OF RELATIVE CAPABILITY AND CRISES IN WORLD-POLITICS

Connections to cycles of relative capability suggest that conflict amo ng the great powers may exhibit certain regularities. Evolutionary cha nges in national capabilities and role, if manifested in cycles, may h ave implications for crises in world politics. The objective of this s tudy is to use data on crises in foreign policy to test propositions d erived from the theory of power cycles. There are five stages to this investigation. The first presents the theory and revises it through in troduction of insights from prospect theory. The second phase derives implications for foreign policy crises from power cycle theory in its elaborated form. Third, measurements are developed for various aspects of crises and critical points in relative capabilities among the grea t powers. The fourth stage is analysis of data on the experiences of t he great powers in foreign policy crises from 1918 to 1985. The fifth and final task is to assess implications of the findings and suggest d irections for future research.