ILLUSIONS OF MEDIA POWER - THE 3RD-PERSON EFFECT

This study assesses the third-person effect and its alternatives, a fi rst-person effect and equal media effects, among a panel of respondent s following the prediction of a severe earthquake and after the earthq uake failed to materialize. The theoretical perspectives are provided by social comparisons and cognitive adaption theory. The findings indi cate that both third-person and first-person effects result from downw ard social comparisons following from differences in belief in the mes sage, accuracy of information about the predictability of earthquakes, and perception of the beliefs of others about the message. These medi a effects and their correlates are interpreted as illusions people cre ate to cope with a predicted disaster and later revise to reflect situ ational contingencies.