VIOLENT CRIME AND THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF NEIGHBORHOOD TRANSITION - CHICAGO, 1970-1990

Integrating ecological, demographic, and criminological theory, this a rticle examines the role of violent crime and socioeconomic disadvanta ge in triggering population decline in Chicago neighborhoods from 1970 to 1990. The results show that high initial levels of homicide and in creases over time in the spatial proximity to homicide were associated with large losses in total population across 826 census tracts. Howev er, we also observe sharp group differences in patterns for blacks and whites. Although both black and white populations declined in respons e to high initial levels of homicide and socioeconomic disadvantage, i ncreases in neighborhood homicide, spatial proximity to homicide, and socioeconomic disadvantage were associated with black population gain and white population loss. In discussing these findings, we argue that taking violent crime and spatial processes into account resolves the apparent contradiction between Wilson's depopulation hypothesis and Ma ssey's segregation hypothesis on the increasing concentration of urban poverty.