QUANTIFYING THE URUGUAY ROUND

The effects of the Uruguay Round are quantified using a numerical gene ral equilibrium model which incorporates increasing returns to scale, 24 regions, 22 commodities, and steady state growth effects. we conclu de that the aggregate welfare gains from the Round are in the order of $96 billion per year in the short run, but could be as high as $171 b illion per year in the long run after capital stocks have optimally ad justed. Despite these global gains, we identify some developing countr ies that lose from the Round in the short run. In the long run, almost all gain, and the Round will allow developing countries to gain furth er through their own unilateral liberalisation.