PREVALENCE OF STROKE AND STROKE-RELATED DISABILITY - ESTIMATES FROM THE AUCKLAND STROKE STUDIES

Background and Purpose To provide estimates of the prevalence of strok e and stroke-related disability for international comparisons and for planning purposes. Methods Estimates of prevalence were derived from t wo population-based studies conducted 10 years apart in Auckland, New Zealand. The first, carried out in 1981, included information on survi val and stroke-related disability to 14 years after stroke, and the se cond, undertaken in 1991 to 1992, included this information up to 3 ye ars after stroke. An actuarial model was developed that took into acco unt changes in incidence, long-term survival, and population structure . Results Overall, it was estimated that 7491 people (3793 men and 369 8 women) living in Auckland (total population 945 000) in 1991 had exp erienced a stroke at some stage in the past. This represents an age-st andardized rate of 833 per 100 000 (991 per 100 000 in men and 706 per 100 000 in women) in the population aged 15 years and older. When onl y those who have made an incomplete recovery are considered, prevalenc e falls to 461 per 100 000. Of this group, one third (173 per 100 000 population 15 years and older) required assistance in at least one sel f-care activity. Conclusions Usual estimates of stroke prevalence, whi ch include all people who have ever experienced a stroke, may overesti mate by almost twofold the prevalence of stroke-related disability, si nce many have either recovered or have no continuing dependency relate d to stroke. Overall prevalence does not provide information with suff icient precision for planning and purchasing ongoing services for stro ke patients.