PREDICTING CLINICAL PROGRESSION OR DEATH IN SUBJECTS WITH EARLY-STAGEHUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS (HIV) INFECTION - A COMPARATIVE-ANALYSISOF QUANTIFICATION OF HIV RNA, SOLUBLE TUMOR-NECROSIS-FACTOR TYPE-II RECEPTORS, NEOPTERIN, AND BETA(2)-MICROGLOBULIN

Quantification of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA by branched-c hain DNA signal amplification, measurement of soluble tumor necrosis f actor type II receptors (sTNFR-II), neopterin, beta(2)-microglobulin, or CD4 cell counts can be used to predict the risk of clinical progres sion or death in HIV infection but have not been compared in the same study. Ninety subjects were categorized into progression groups by the ir rate of CD4 cell decline and matched into triplets by initial CD4 c ell count, age, race, and calendar time. By matched logistic regressio n, only the sTNFR-II and HIV RNA values were predictive of outcome acr oss the progression groups. Categorization of baseline HIV RNA and sTN FR-II resulted in differences in progression to several clinical outco mes. sTNFR-II concentrations were the only immune marker examined that increased the prognostic utility of HIV RNA determination in early-st age subjects. Further studies in later stages of disease or after ther apy are indicated.