That China is slated to become a twenty-first century superpower is in
creasingly accepted by specialists, policy makers, and pundits alike.
These observers postulate, on this basis, that China must be confronte
d and a new Cold War (some even predict a hot war) is inevitable betwe
en the United States and China. Global policy makers are accordingly f
ormulating policies that will shape and condition China's behavior in
a direction that is benign, cooperative, and favorable to regional sta
bility. Against this backdrop, a robust policy debate has erupted in t
he United States over how best to deal with an ascendant China. Contra
ry to those who argue that China seeks and can attain hegemony over As
ia, this article questions the core assumption and argues that even if
China did have such an intention, it will not have the capability to
do so for at least 25 years. Nonetheless, this article posits four pos
sible types of hegemony that China may exercise over Asia by 2015. Eac
h is an ideal type rather than a prediction, and this article predicts
that China's posture in Asia 20 years hence will likely be a composit
e of each type.