CHINESE HEGEMONY OVER EAST-ASIA BY 2015

That China is slated to become a twenty-first century superpower is in creasingly accepted by specialists, policy makers, and pundits alike. These observers postulate, on this basis, that China must be confronte d and a new Cold War (some even predict a hot war) is inevitable betwe en the United States and China. Global policy makers are accordingly f ormulating policies that will shape and condition China's behavior in a direction that is benign, cooperative, and favorable to regional sta bility. Against this backdrop, a robust policy debate has erupted in t he United States over how best to deal with an ascendant China. Contra ry to those who argue that China seeks and can attain hegemony over As ia, this article questions the core assumption and argues that even if China did have such an intention, it will not have the capability to do so for at least 25 years. Nonetheless, this article posits four pos sible types of hegemony that China may exercise over Asia by 2015. Eac h is an ideal type rather than a prediction, and this article predicts that China's posture in Asia 20 years hence will likely be a composit e of each type.