NAVAL COOPERATION IN NORTHEAST ASIA

The transformation of the Asian security system following the end of t he Cold War is being carefully observed throughout the region. Broadly speaking, there is a shift away from old security structures toward e xperimentation and early deployment of modern forces suited for the ne w era where outside superpowers have less capacity than they did durin g the Cold War. In Northeast Asia, the expansion of the South Korean n avy has raised various important issues. Not only does this expansion indicate a move away from the old system of deterrence on the peninsul a, but it has a larger regional impact. Japan, China, and the United S tates are affected in different ways. For the United States, South Kor ean naval development presents an opportunity to cooperate in the rest ructuring of the Northeast Asian security system both for a post-Cold War environment, and also for a period of rapidly approaching Korean u nification. By integrating the ROK Navy into the naval practices of th e US and Japanese navies the United States can forestall a slow naval competition between South Korea and Japan. At the current time there i s not much concern over such a competition, but in light of Chinese ec onomic and military modernization what today seems like a harmless com petition could turn into something of greater concern in the future. T he US could also take advantage of the South Korean navy as a way to r estructure the security alliance with Seoul. Building the alliance on a maritime rather than an infantry foundation would fit in with politi cal trends in both countries. At the same time it would provide a syst em to regulate South Korean and Japanese naval interactions in way tha t is threatening to neither party. For Japan, naval cooperation in a t rilateral framework presents a historic opportunity to reverse decades of indifference toward South Korea's security problem. For China, tri lateral US-ROK-Japanese naval cooperation presents some problems that have not been thought through by Beijing. In particular, China might m ove to increase her own cooperation with South Korea, something that c ould strain relations between Washington and Seoul. In addition, incre ased naval interaction with South Korea could have the tendency to dra w the Chinese fleet increasingly into Northeast Asian waters. For the most part, the Chinese navy has operated in the South China Sea as its central focus. Trilateral cooperation might have the unintended effec t of changing this, toward more operations in the East and Yellow seas . Trilateral naval cooperation in Northeast Asia marks the end of a ma jor epoch in Asia, where Cold War struggles drove force structures and budgets. Its lasting significance is as the first move away from thes e old systems toward newer security arrangements that emphasize modern technology, more complex demands on command systems and intelligence, and a new form of sophisticated multilateral foreign policy that allo ws an important role for military diplomacy.