ON LOCAL EXTINCTION IN A METAPOPULATION

A method is presented to express for a metapopulation the expected loc al extinction time in an area in the parameters of the full model for the metapopulation. For that purpose the long-term stochastic dynamics of the local population is approximated by a stochastic logistic proc ess fitting the behavior of the local population as it acts in the ful l system. Moreover, a formula for the occupation rate of the area is d erived. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.