DIRECT ESTIMATES OF PREVALENT HIV-INFECTION IN ADULTS IN ENGLAND AND WALES FOR 1991 AND 1993 - AN IMPROVED METHOD

Objective: To estimate the number of prevalent HIV infections in Engla nd and Wales at the end of 1991 and 1993. Method: A direct method was used whereby population estimates derived from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyle (NATSAL) and prevalence data from the U nlinked Anonymous HIV Prevalence Monitoring Programme (UAPMP) were com bined to produce estimates of the number of adults infected and alive in the population. Results: In the population of England and Wales the numbers of prevalent infections for defined transmission categories, at the end of 1993, were as follows: 12 000 through sex between men, 2 500 through injecting drug use, and 6900 through heterosexual intercou rse, The overall estimate was 22 800 HIV seropositive individuals. Con clusions: The direct method attempts to provide an estimate of the num ber of HIV infections using population based survey data. These estima tes are consistent with other approaches using independent methods. Su ch methods are essential for inferring recent HIV incidence, projectin g future AIDS cases, and for healthcare planning.