EFFECTS OF THE ONE-CHILD FAMILY POLICY ON 2ND AND 3RD BIRTHS IN HEBEI, SHAANXI AND SHANGHAI

This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differen tial effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by th e sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural dif ferentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rap id increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more impo rtant factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subs equent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preferences among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas . Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher ris ks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter a re indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of t he one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility.