A CROSS-CULTURAL EXPLORATION OF THE REFERENCE DEPENDENCE OF CRUCIAL GROUP DECISIONS UNDER RISK - JAPAN 1941 DECISION FOR WAR

This study investigates risky group decision making in Japan from a pr ospect theory perspective. Hypotheses concerning the effects of the re ference point on risk preferences in group decision making were tested by content analyzing transcripts of Japanese leaders' deliberations p rior to their 1941 decision for war and subsequent attack. on Pearl Ha rbor. Consistent with prospect theory, the results show systematic ass ociations between tile reference point used and the riskiness of polic y recommendations. The highly risky decision for war appears to have b een influenced by the group's reference point, which framed the group' s alternatives as a choice between losses. The decision for war thus a ppears to have been motivated by a desire to avoid what were otherwise perceived as certain losses.