Options for breeding for greater maize yields in the tropics were quan
titatively examined with a crop growth simulation model that was teste
d against field data of five genotypes in four environments. Simulatio
ns indicate that at high production levels, grain filling of maize is
sink-limited, and that increasing the number of kernels per m(2) throu
gh larger primary ears, prolificacy or greater plant densities, will l
ead to increased grain yields. On a theoretical basis, it is concluded
that larger primary ears lead to greater grain yields at all plant gr
owth rates, and that increased prolificacy leads to greater grain yiel
ds only if plant growth rate exceeds a threshold. Under nitrogen limit
ed growing conditions, selecting for genotypes that extract more nitro
gen from soils, and for delayed leaf senescence, show promise for incr
easing yields. For crop growth limited by moisture availability around
flowering, continued selection for improved kernel set leads to great
er grain yields. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.