PREDICTING PROBLEM DRINKING - A TEST OF AN INTERACTIVE SOCIAL-LEARNING MODEL

This study tested a social learning model and explored the direct and interactive relationships between personality and environment in predi cting problem alcohol use. We used longitudinal data from a nonclinica l sample of males and females first tested in adolescence and followed into young adulthood. Hierarchial regression analyses were used to te st main effects and interaction models. The cross-sectional data suppo rted an interactive social learning model. Both personality and enviro nment variables significantly predicted problem drinking. Two interact ions between heavy drinking peer groups and personality variables were significant. Contrary to our hypothesis, the direction of the interac tion was negative. In contrast, the longitudinal analyses did not prov ide strong support for our interactive model. Personality variables we re significant predictors longitudinally, but in only one analysis did an environment variable significantly predict problem drinking. Furth ermore, none of the interactions was significant predictors over time. Overall, the findings suggest that social learning models based on th e interaction of personality and environmental influences may be more appropriate for predicting concurrent, as opposed to future problems, and that Mure research should include person-environment interactions. In addition, cultural tolerance of heavy drinking may be an important determinant of the role of psychological vulnerability in the develop ment of problem drinking.