PARTY TARGETING AND ELECTORAL SUCCESS

ORVIS, a measure of partisan strength calculated from the precinct-lev el vote share in previous statewide elections, has been used since 198 8 to target Republican efforts in Georgia state legislative contests. The top-down approach implied in the use of this targeting device has paid dividends. Successful Republican challengers come disproportionat ely from districts with high ORVIS scores. The relationship between OR VIS scores and the share of the vote going to Republican candidates pe rsists after factors such as campaign funding are controlled. The part y's past success in statewide contests is a much better predictor of p erformance than is the showing in the previous legislative contest.