PREDICTING OUTCOMES IN HIV-INFECTED VETERANS .2. SURVIVAL AFTER AIDS

This article (Part II) and the preceding article (Part I) report the d evelopment of two clinical staging systems for HIV-infected individual s. The objective of the research reported here (Part II) was to constr uct a clinical staging system to predict survival in patients with AID S. We analyzed data from VA Cooperative Study Number 298, a multicente r, double blind, randomized trial that compared immediate versus defer red zidovudine therapy in HIV-infected individuals. Baseline variables obtained at the onset of AIDS in 204 individuals were rested in univa riate Cox regression for their relationship to survival, and chose tha t appeared predictive were examined in multivariable analysis. Based o n these analyses, we constructed a new AIDS Clinical Staging System. T he system is based on age, CD4+ cell count, type of first. AIDS-defini ng condition, and functional status. The stages of the system were sig nificant predictors of survival (p = 0.0001, log-rank test). In conclu sion, valid, simple clinical staging systems for patients with AIDS ca n be developed based on a few variables that are readily available in clinical settings. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.