THE CASSINI MISSION PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS - COMPARISON OF 2 PROBABILISTIC DYNAMIC METHODOLOGIES

This paper describes a comparison between two dynamic methodologies us ed in the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the Cassini Mission. Th e main Cassini PRA was performed by Lockheed Martin. A combination of Monte Carlo algorithms and event-tree logic was used to perform the st udy. Results were validated using an alternative method, the Discrete Dynamic Event Tree (DDET) methodology. Two major conclusions of the pa per are 1) performing a dynamic PRA of large scale 'real-life' systems is feasible and 2) given the same ground rules and assumptions, two d ynamic methodologies would give the same results. (C) 1997 Published b y Elsevier Science Limited.