UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GAS AND BRINE MIGRATION AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT-PLANT - PERMEABLE SHAFT WITHOUT PANEL SEALS

Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis, stepwise regre ssion analysis and examination of scatterplots are used in conjunction with the BRAGFLO model in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of gas and brine movement at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Topics inve stigated include (1) gas production due to corrosion of steel and micr obial degradation of cellulosics, (2) gas saturation and pressure in t he repository, (3) gas movement in anhydrite marker beds, and (4) gas and brine movement through a short, low permeability shaft seal to the Culebra Dolomite. Important variables identified in the analysis incl ude initial brine saturation of the waste, stoichiometric terms for co rrosion of steel and microbial degradation of cellulosics, corrosion a nd microbial degradation rates, porosity of the Salado Formation, tran sition (disturbed) zone porosity, marker bed (anhydrite) permeability, and seal permeability. Published by Elsevier Science Limited.