PROPOSAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Climate scenarios are important tools for the description of climate d evelopments. A proposal for the construction of climate scenarios is p resented in this paper. The idea consists of the calculation of possib le climate developments on the basis of coupling the safest hypothesis on the development of the future climate (for instance from climate m odel results) for a selected region with observed data from this regio n. Therefore, a statistical algorithm was developed by maintaining the stability of the main statistical characteristics (variability, kind of frequency distribution, annual cycle, persistence). Using a special cluster analysis algorithm, complex scenarios could be calculated whi ch guarantee temporal, spatial and physical consistency of the conside red meteorological parameters. The quality of the method was demonstra ted by calculation over an example data series. In addition, the pract icability of the algorithm was demonstrated for a selected region of G ermany by using different scenario examples.