This DataWatch evaluates four-stage models of market evolution develop
ed initially by the University HealthSystem Consortium (UHC). Such mod
els suggest that increasing health maintenance organization (HMO) pene
tration is linked with increases in hospital consolidation and vertica
l integration between physicians and hospitals. These claims are teste
d using national data for 1992-1995. Results suggest that such models
accurately classify the markets of UHC member hospitals according to t
heir levels of HMO penetration only. Moreover, they do not discern evo
lutionary stages of market development and may not be generalizable to
the markets of non-UHC member hospitals. Researchers and policymakers
should exercise caution in applying such models.