ADVERSE IMPLICATIONS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL GRACE PERIOD FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES

The multilateral consensus that led to the signing and ratification of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 and its London (1990) and Copenhagen Am endments (1992), resulted in the near-complete phase-out of chlorofluo rocarbon (CFC) use in industrialized countries by the end of 1995. To meet their economic development needs, the treaty permits developing c ountries to continue producing and consuming CECs for an additional fi fteen years, until 2010. This delay in eliminating ozone-depleting sub stances slows the recovery of the atone layer, and has generated a glo bal black market in CFCs. The estimated cost of replacing CFCs with hy drofluorocarbon (HPC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon. (HCFC) technologica l options is substantially greater than available financial resources, and this cost rises as CFC replacement is postponed. Furthermore, man ufacturing and maintenance problems with the pre dominant HPC refriger ation alternative make it less suitable for developing-country markets . We propose that the grace period offered to the developing countries be used to encourage a rapid shift to not-in-kind (NIK) technologies as soon as possible. Available NIK technologies are environmentally an d economically sounder alternatives than HFC/HCFC substitutes for both developed and developing countries, but the failure of industrial cou ntries to agree on a common option is slowing the transition by develo ping countries to a CFC-free economy.