MODELING CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS USING LINKED MODELS ANDA GIS

Future climate change scenarios have been applied to a linked model at five U.K. sites. Results indicate a decrease in grassland productivit y under a changed climate, resulting from lower soil water content, wi th possible large consequences to future U.K. water resource planning. The effect of running the grassland sub-model in isolation, compared with running it as part of a linked model showed that linked models sh ould be used for climate change impacts studies. The location specific response to climate change was also highlighted. The model is mechani stic, consists of four sub-models (grassland, water balance, nitrate a nd evapotranspiration) and is spatially explicit.