FARES, SERVICE LEVELS, AND DEMOGRAPHICS - WHAT DETERMINES COMMUTER RAIL RIDERSHIP IN THE LONG-RUN

Using panel data covering a 13-year period, this paper examines the ro les of transportation policy and demographic changes in determining ra il ridership. The paper presents a model which allows identification o f long-run responses of ridership to changes in prices and service ind ependently of exogenous shocks to ridership caused by demographic fact ors. Long-run price and service elasticities are estimated to be almos t twice as large as short-run elasticities. After controlling for tran sportation prices and service levels, demographic variables contribute little to explaining residual differences in ridership. To the extent that demographic changes are driven by transportation variables, thes e effects are captured in the estimated long-run elasticities. (C) 199 7 Academic Press.