AN IMPROVED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING THE MEAN AND STANDARD-DEVIATION OF A SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Authors
LAU HS LAU AHL ZHANG Y
Citation
Hs. Lau et al., AN IMPROVED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING THE MEAN AND STANDARD-DEVIATION OF A SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, Journal of forecasting, 16(2), 1997, pp. 83-95
Citations number
40
Categorie Soggetti
Management,"Planning & Development
Journal title
Journal of forecasting → ACNP
ISSN journal
02776693
Volume
16
Issue
2
Year of publication
1997
Pages
83 - 95
Database
ISI
SICI code
0277-6693(1997)16:2<83:AIAFET>2.0.ZU;2-6
Abstract
The literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standa rd deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known ex ample is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlyi ng assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately tha n the currently available formulas.