END-OF-TREATMENT SELF-EFFICACY - A PREDICTOR OF ABSTINENCE

Results of previous studies suggest that end-of-treatment self-efficac y in problem drinkers has limited predictive validity. One explanation for this finding has been the postulated existence of a ceiling effec t, i.e. the possibility that subjects who rate themselves highly in te rms of self-efficacy form a heterogeneous group with some subjects mak ing inflated self-efficacy judgements based on an over-optimistic perc eption of their coping abilities. In the present study, end-of-treatme nt self-efficacy in 63 problem drinkers, as measured by the Situationa l Confidence Questionnaire and a newly designed Self-Efficacy Question naire (SEQ), was predictive of abstinence status at 3 month follow-up. In those patients who on the SEQ had expressed great confidence in th eir ability to remain abstinent over the follow-up period, the additio nal consideration of keyworkers' confidence in their patients' ability to remain abstinent as well as patients' anticipated need for future help improved the prediction of abstinence status. These results are d iscussed with respect to the postulated ceiling effect. A prognostic t ree using just three baseline variables predicted abstinence status co rrectly in 88% of all cases.