THE CONTINUATION OF HISTORY - POWER TRANSITION THEORY AND THE END OF THE COLD-WAR

This article offers an interpretation of the current international sit uation from the perspective of power transition theory. Previous effor ts to understand what the end of the Cold War means for international relations have provided only part of the picture. Optimistic views ten d to deny the possibility of the emergence of new threats, while pessi mistic arguments generally fail to recognize that the prospects for ma jor war have been significantly reduced by the dramatic events of the last half decade. The interpretation offered here is potentially advan tageous because it draws insights from a theory with a long record of empirical support. Power transition theory is consistent with the exis tence of a 'Long Peace' since World War II, with the Cold War's peacef ul end, and thus provides confidence to those who would use it to inte rpret the prospects for the future. The conclusion offered here is tha t while the end of the Cold War offers reason for celebration, there i s also cause for concern.